Election Tracker Blog #

This blog explains how US polls, approval ratings and prediction markets work, and follows the 2026 midterms and the early 2028 race without taking sides. It’s written by the team behind Election Tracker, a free iPhone app that groups Senate, governor, generic-ballot and 2028 primary polls by race with a 30-day average, tracks presidential approval, and shows prediction-market prices labeled as trader sentiment.

Start here #

• How polling averages work: why an average beats any single poll, and how one is built.
• How to tell if a political poll is reliable: the checks to run before you share a surprising result.
• Understanding margin of error: when a lead is real and when it’s inside the noise.
• How to track and read presidential approval ratings: approve, disapprove, net approval and what moves them.
• What the generic ballot is and why it matters: the best single national gauge of the House.
• Which Senate seats are up in 2026: all 35 races on the November 3 ballot.
• 2026 governor races: all 36 contests, the nominees and the open seats.
• 2026 midterm election calendar: the dates between now and Election Day.
• Prediction markets vs. polls: what each measures and how often each has been right.
• Best election tracker apps: the main poll, market and results trackers compared.