All three now operate legally in the US, which wasn’t true two years ago. Kalshi is the longest-standing CFTC-regulated exchange with the broadest US election menu. Polymarket has the most global trading volume and returned to US users in late 2025 through a CFTC-licensed exchange. PredictIt is the politics-only veteran, now regulated too, with a $3,500 cap per contract and fees that take a bigger bite. Which is “best” depends on how much you’d trade and whether you care about fees, market selection or simplicity.
A quick warning before the comparison: these are real-money markets and you can lose what you put in. Rules, fees and state-by-state access are still changing, so confirm the current terms on each platform before you sign up.
How do the three compare at a glance? #
| Kalshi | Polymarket | PredictIt | |
|---|---|---|---|
| US regulator | CFTC-designated contract market since 2020 | US access via a CFTC-licensed exchange acquired in 2025 | Regulated exchange approved by the CFTC in September 2025 |
| US access | Yes, with some state-level restrictions mainly on sports | Returned to US users in December 2025 | Yes |
| Money | US dollars via bank transfer or card | US dollars for US users; the international site uses the USDC stablecoin | US dollars |
| Position limit | Check current rules for each market | Check current rules | $3,500 per contract (raised from $850 in 2025) |
| Fees | Trading fee that scales with price, highest near 50¢ | Varies by market and platform; check the current schedule | 10% of profits on winning positions, plus 5% on withdrawals |
| Market range | Politics, economics, weather, culture, sports | Politics, world events, culture, crypto, sports | Politics and policy |
Kalshi: the regulated exchange with the widest US election menu #
Kalshi was the first exchange approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to trade directly on event outcomes, in 2020. For years the CFTC blocked it from listing contracts on which party would control Congress. Kalshi sued, won in federal court in 2024, and has listed election contracts since. It now offers markets on chamber control, individual Senate and governor races, primaries and the 2028 nominations.
Strengths: dollar deposits through normal banking, a regulated clearinghouse, a large number of US election markets, and professional market makers that keep spreads tight in popular contracts.
Trade-offs: Kalshi charges a transaction fee on each trade, calculated from the contract price, so it costs most on contracts near 50¢ and less near the extremes. Some markets also charge makers. Kalshi’s sports contracts have drawn lawsuits and orders from several states, including Massachusetts, Nevada and Minnesota, in 2025 and 2026. Those fights have mostly been about sports rather than elections, but they’re a reminder that state rules can still affect access.
Polymarket: the biggest volume, back in the US #
Polymarket built the largest prediction market in the world on crypto rails, with trades settled in the USDC stablecoin. After a 2022 settlement with the CFTC it blocked US users. In July 2025 federal investigations closed without new charges, and Polymarket bought QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, to serve the US market. It received an amended CFTC designation in November 2025 and reopened to US customers in December 2025.
Strengths: the deepest liquidity in many headline political markets, a huge range of events, and prices that get quoted widely in the media. Polymarket’s public prices are also free to view without an account.
Trade-offs: the US platform and the international site are separate, and not every international market is available to US users. Fees differ between the two and by market type, so check the current schedule rather than relying on the old “no fees” reputation. States have pushed back here too: Nevada’s gaming regulator filed a complaint in January 2026, and Minnesota passed a ban on prediction markets in May 2026 that a federal court has since blocked from being enforced.
PredictIt: the politics specialist, now with higher limits #
PredictIt launched in 2014 under a CFTC no-action letter granted to Victoria University of Wellington, which allowed small-stakes trading for research. The CFTC tried to withdraw that letter in 2022, PredictIt fought it in court, and in 2025 the situation flipped: a July agreement raised the per-contract cap from $850 to $3,500 and removed the 5,000-trader limit per market, and in September 2025 PredictIt won approval to run as a regulated exchange.
Strengths: it’s all politics, the interface is simple, and the community has been following US races for more than a decade. The limit keeps any one trader from dominating a market.
Trade-offs: fees. PredictIt takes 10% of the profit on each winning position and 5% of any withdrawal. On a contract bought at 60¢ that pays $1, the 10% fee turns a 40¢ profit into 36¢, and withdrawing costs 5% more. That makes small edges hard to capture, and it’s one reason the same market can trade at a different price on PredictIt than elsewhere. See how arbitrage works in political prediction markets.
Which platform suits which trader? #
Kalshi fits you if you want a regulated US exchange, dollar deposits, and the widest set of US election contracts, and you’re comfortable with a per-trade fee.
Polymarket fits you if you care most about liquidity in the biggest markets and want to follow global events as well as US politics. Check that the specific markets you want are offered to US users.
PredictIt fits you if you trade small amounts on US politics only and value a simple, politics-focused site, and you accept that its fee structure favors holding positions rather than frequent trading.
Whichever you pick, learn how contracts settle before you trade: what counts as the outcome, who resolves it, and when. Our guide to how political prediction markets pay out walks through resolution rules and the cases where they get contested.
How to read prices across the three #
A contract’s price in cents is roughly the market’s probability that the event happens. When the same question trades at 58¢ on one platform and 62¢ on another, fees, liquidity and who trades there usually explain the gap. How to read political betting odds covers converting prices, removing the spread, and what a given price does and doesn’t mean.
If you just want to watch prices rather than trade them, you don’t need an account on any of these. Election Tracker, our free iPhone app, shows current Polymarket prices, read-only, for markets such as 2026 House and Senate control and the 2028 nominations, with 24-hour moves and a disclaimer that prices are trader sentiment, not forecasts. It doesn’t show Kalshi or PredictIt prices, and it takes no wagers. Its polling tabs sit next to the market screen, so you can compare a race’s price with its polling average.
Frequently asked questions #
Is Polymarket legal in the US now? #
Yes, through its CFTC-licensed US exchange, which opened to US customers in December 2025. Some states have challenged prediction markets, and not every market on the international site is offered to US users, so check availability where you live.
Does PredictIt still have an $850 limit? #
No. In 2025 PredictIt raised its per-contract cap to $3,500 and dropped the 5,000-trader limit per market. Its 10% profit fee and 5% withdrawal fee remained.
Which prediction market has the lowest fees? #
It depends on the market and the price you trade at. PredictIt’s fees are the easiest to understand and among the highest. Kalshi’s fee varies with contract price. Polymarket’s differs by platform and market. Compare the current published schedules for the specific contract you want.
Are prediction market winnings taxable? #
Generally, yes. How they’re taxed can depend on the platform and how contracts are classified, so keep records and check with a tax professional.
Are prediction markets more accurate than polls? #
Sometimes. Markets react faster, but they’ve also missed, as in the 2022 Senate races. See our comparison of prediction markets and polls for the track record.