The key swing states for the 2028 presidential election are expected to be the same seven that decided 2024: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada. Together they hold 93 electoral votes, and in 2024 every one of them was decided by less than 6 points. A candidate needs 270 of 538 electoral votes to win, and neither party can realistically get there without several of these states.
States move in and out of battleground status over time, so treat this list as the starting point. The 2026 midterms, with Senate and governor races in most of these states, are the first real test of where they stand.
How close were the swing states in 2024? #
Donald Trump carried all seven in 2024. The margins show how narrow the map is:
| State | Electoral votes | 2024 margin |
|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | 19 | R +1.7 |
| Michigan | 15 | R +1.4 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | R +0.9 |
| Georgia | 16 | R +2.2 |
| North Carolina | 16 | R +3.2 |
| Nevada | 6 | R +3.1 |
| Arizona | 11 | R +5.5 |
Pennsylvania was the tipping-point state, the one that put the winner over 270. The electoral vote counts stay the same for 2028, because the next reapportionment, based on the 2030 census, doesn’t take effect until the 2032 election. Our guide to how the census changes the Electoral College map explains the timing.
The Great Lakes states: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin #
These three were long called the “Blue Wall” because Democrats won them in every presidential race from 1992 to 2012. Since 2016 they’ve swung back and forth by a point or two each cycle.
Pennsylvania #
With 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania is the biggest prize among the seven. Its politics are a contest between the fast-growing Philadelphia suburbs and the Pittsburgh area on one side and small towns and rural counties on the other. Both parties spend more here than almost anywhere else.
Michigan #
Michigan turns on turnout in the Detroit area, the direction of large suburban counties like Oakland and Macomb, and working-class voters in auto and manufacturing towns. Its 2026 races include an open Senate seat and an open governorship, a good early read on the state.
Wisconsin #
Wisconsin is often the closest of the three. Statewide races are regularly decided by fewer than 30,000 votes. The Madison and Milwaukee areas anchor one side, the suburban counties around Milwaukee and a large rural vote the other. The governor’s race is open in 2026.
The Sun Belt states: Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada #
Georgia #
Georgia’s political center is metro Atlanta, where population growth has made the state competitive after decades of one-party dominance at the top of the ticket. It has one of the most-watched 2026 Senate races, plus an open governor’s race, and it requires a majority to win general elections, so close races can go to a runoff.
North Carolina #
North Carolina has been close for years, but after backing Barack Obama in 2008 it has voted for the Republican presidential nominee every time since. The Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham areas are growing fast; rural eastern and western North Carolina remain large. Its 2026 Senate seat is open.
Arizona #
Maricopa County, home to Phoenix and most of the state’s voters, decides Arizona. Its electorate mixes a large Latino population, retirees and newcomers from other states, and a big bloc of independents. The governor’s race is on the 2026 ballot.
Nevada #
Most Nevadans live in Clark County (Las Vegas) or Washoe County (Reno). The service economy, union organizing and working-class Latino voters shape the vote, and Nevada’s small size means turnout swings matter more. Its governor’s race is on the 2026 ballot.
Which states could join the 2028 battleground? #
- New Hampshire, Minnesota and Virginia voted Democratic in 2024 by single-digit margins. A national shift of a few points would put them in play.
- Texas and Florida have trended Republican in recent cycles, but their size keeps them on every campaign’s list of long shots.
- Nebraska’s 2nd District and Maine’s 2nd District each award one electoral vote separately. In 2025, Nebraska Republicans tried to switch the state to winner-take-all and fell two votes short of the 33 needed to end a filibuster. Our guide to how Maine and Nebraska split electoral votes explains why one vote can matter.
That single vote is not hypothetical. On the 2024 map, a candidate who won all of Harris’s states plus Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would have 270, but losing Nebraska’s 2nd District would leave a 269-269 tie. Our explainer on what happens in an Electoral College tie covers what follows.
What makes these states swing? #
Three forces keep these states competitive:
- Education realignment. College-educated suburban voters have moved toward Democrats and working-class voters of all races toward Republicans. States with a lot of both, like Georgia and Pennsylvania, stay close.
- The urban-rural gap. Statewide results depend on whether big-city turnout outweighs rural margins, and small changes in either can flip a state.
- Migration. People moving into the Sun Belt from other states change the electorate faster than in slow-growing states.
For a longer look at how states enter and leave the battleground, see what makes a state a swing state.
How can you track the 2028 swing states now? #
State-level polling of 2028 matchups is thin this early and won’t be regular until the nominees are clear. For now, the best signals come from three places:
- The 2026 Senate and governor races in these states. They test each party’s turnout operation under real conditions.
- Presidential approval. A president’s standing shapes the national environment his party runs in, in 2026 and beyond.
- The 2028 primary fields. Who emerges shapes which states are winnable.
Election Tracker covers all three: Senate and governor races in these states on their tabs with 30-day polling averages, presidential approval as a 7-day average with a 90-day chart, and national polls of both 2028 primary fields. Its Market Sentiment tab also shows read-only Polymarket prices for the 2028 winner and nominee markets, labelled as trader sentiment rather than forecasts.
Frequently asked questions #
What makes a state a swing state? #
A swing state is one where either major party has a realistic chance of winning its electoral votes, usually because recent statewide races were decided by a few points. Campaigns concentrate their ads and visits there because the outcome is in doubt.
How many electoral votes do the seven swing states have? #
Ninety-three: Pennsylvania 19, Georgia 16, North Carolina 16, Michigan 15, Arizona 11, Wisconsin 10 and Nevada 6. Those counts hold for 2028 and change after the 2030 census.
Did the same states swing in 2020 and 2024? #
Yes. Joe Biden won six of the seven in 2020 (all but North Carolina), and Donald Trump won all seven in 2024. That flip across two elections is part of why they’re considered the core battleground.
Could a new state become a swing state by 2028? #
It’s possible. States that were decided by single digits in 2024, such as New Hampshire, Minnesota and Virginia, could tighten, and demographic change keeps Texas on the watch list. Colorado and Virginia are examples of former swing states that moved away from the center over the past two decades.