A brushfire poll is a mid-campaign survey a campaign commissions to check whether its strategy is working and to measure how voters are reacting to new events, attacks or messages. It’s smaller and shorter than the opening benchmark poll and runs before the nightly tracking polls of the final weeks. The name comes from its job: spotting small problems before they spread.
Brushfire polls are internal tools. You’ll only see one if a campaign decides to release it, and that decision tells you something too.
Where do brushfire polls fit in a campaign? #
Campaigns typically buy three kinds of polls over a race:
- Benchmark poll. A long, detailed survey at the start, often 600 to 1,000 or more interviews, that establishes name recognition, issue priorities and which messages might work.
- Brushfire poll. Periodic check-ins in the middle of the race, often every few weeks or right after a big event, usually 400 to 600 interviews.
- Tracking poll. Small samples every night in the final weeks, pooled into a rolling average to catch late movement.
Our guide to tracking polls vs. benchmark polls covers the other two in detail.
| Benchmark | Brushfire | Tracking | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Timing | Start of the campaign | Mid-campaign, repeated | Final 3 to 6 weeks |
| Sample | Large, 600 to 1,000+ | Moderate, 400 to 600 | 100 to 200 a night, pooled |
| Length | 20 to 30 minutes | 10 to 15 minutes | A few minutes |
| Main question | Where do we start? | Is it working, and what changed? | Which way is it moving? |
| Margin of error | About ±3 to ±4 | About ±4 to ±5 | About ±4.5 to ±6 for the pooled sample |
What does a brushfire poll ask? #
A brushfire poll keeps a core of repeated questions so the campaign can compare with the benchmark: the ballot test, favorability for both candidates and the top issues. Around that core it adds questions about whatever has happened since the last poll. That might be an opponent’s new ad, a news story, a debate, a policy the candidate just announced or a shift in the economy.
How do campaigns use brushfire polls? #
Testing messages before paying for ads #
Before a campaign spends heavily on TV or digital ads, it wants to know which argument persuades. Brushfire polls often use a split sample: half the respondents hear one message, half hear another, and the campaign compares how each group’s support moves. The stronger message gets the ad money.
Measuring damage from an attack #
When an opponent launches an attack, the campaign has to decide whether to respond. Answering every charge can spread it further. A brushfire poll asks whether voters have heard the attack and whether it changed their view. If nothing moved, the campaign may ignore it. If support dropped among voters it needs, it responds.
Deciding where to spend time and money #
A candidate’s time and the ad budget are the scarcest things a campaign has. If a brushfire poll shows a region the campaign thought was safe is tightening, the candidate adds stops there. If an area looks out of reach, or already won, resources go elsewhere.
Why do campaigns leak brushfire polls? #
Internal polls are meant to stay private, so when one appears in the news, someone chose to release it. Campaigns release internals for reasons like these:
- Fundraising. A poll showing a close race tells donors their money could make a difference.
- Momentum. A poll showing a candidate gaining can motivate volunteers and change how reporters cover the race.
- Narrative. If coverage says a campaign is struggling, a favorable internal pushes back.
A campaign occasionally releases bad numbers on purpose, to warn donors or allies that it needs help. Most of the time, though, released internals are the good ones. For context on who pays for polls and why it matters, see who pays for political polls.
How should you read a leaked internal poll? #
Ask four questions:
- Did they release the full questionnaire? A memo with only the topline may leave out message-test questions asked before the vote question, which can push respondents toward one side.
- What’s the sample and margin? At 400 to 600 interviews, the margin is around ±4 to ±5 points, and about twice that on the gap between candidates. A 3-point lead is well inside it.
- Who was interviewed? Likely voters or registered voters? In a midterm the difference can be several points.
- How does it compare with public polls? One internal that disagrees with every independent poll is a reason for caution, not a new trend.
The fourth check is the fastest. Election Tracker shows each Senate and governor race’s 30-day polling average with every published poll listed underneath, including pollster, sample size, population and field dates. If a campaign releases an internal, you can see in a few seconds whether it sits near the other polls or far from them.
Message-testing questions have a darker cousin. When a “survey” delivers loaded questions to thousands of voters with no intention of measuring anything, it’s a push poll. Our guide to spotting push polls shows the difference.
Frequently asked questions #
Why is it called a brushfire poll? #
A brushfire is small and easy to put out early but can spread fast if ignored. The poll’s job is to find political “fires,” such as an attack that’s landing or support slipping in one region, while they’re still small enough to handle.
How many people are in a brushfire poll? #
Usually 400 to 600 interviews. That’s enough to track the overall race and the biggest subgroups, with a margin of error around ±4 to ±5 points, while staying cheaper and faster than a benchmark.
Are brushfire polls accurate? #
They’re usually conducted by professional firms with the same methods as public polls, and campaigns need accurate numbers to plan. The problem is selection: campaigns choose which polls to release, so the brushfire polls you see are more favorable on average than the ones you don’t.
How is a brushfire poll different from a focus group? #
A brushfire poll is a quantitative survey of hundreds of randomly selected voters, meant to measure how common a view is. A focus group is a guided conversation with a small group, meant to understand why people feel the way they do. Our guide to focus groups vs. polls compares them.