Why Is Voter Turnout Lower in Midterm Elections?

Turnout is lower in midterm elections mainly because there’s no presidential race to draw occasional voters to the polls. Presidential campaigns dominate the news for more than a year and spend heavily on getting people out; midterms are a collection of House, Senate and governor races that get far less attention. As a result, midterm turnout typically runs about 20 percentage points below the presidential election two years earlier or later.

That gap changes who votes, which changes how polls have to be read. Here are the numbers, the reasons, and what it means for November 3, 2026.

How much lower is midterm turnout? #

These are approximate turnout rates among eligible voters, from the official results summarized on Wikipedia’s election pages. Exact figures vary a little by source and method, but the pattern doesn’t.

Turnout has risen overall in the last decade, in both kinds of elections, but the gap has stayed. Even 2018’s historically high midterm turnout was about 15 points below 2020’s. For more detailed data, the University of Florida Election Lab publishes national and state turnout for every federal election.

Why do fewer people vote in midterms? #

Less information reaches casual voters #

In a presidential year, it’s almost impossible to avoid the race. That lowers the effort needed to feel informed. In a midterm, voters have to seek out information about House and Senate candidates who get little national coverage, and many don’t.

The stakes feel smaller #

The presidency is one person, easy to understand and easy to have feelings about. Congress is 535 members, and the link between your one House vote and control of the chamber feels abstract. Many people underrate midterms, even though the House and Senate decide which bills pass, which nominees are confirmed and how federal money is spent.

No presidential campaign machine #

Presidential campaigns and their allies spend enormous sums on registration drives, ads and door knocking in the states that matter. Midterm campaigns are smaller and more scattered, so fewer occasional voters get a nudge.

Motivation is lopsided #

Midterms act partly as a referendum on the president. Voters who oppose the president tend to be fired up; the president’s supporters are often less urgent. That asymmetry doesn’t just lower turnout, it shifts the electorate toward the out-party, which is a major reason the president’s party loses seats in midterms.

Who votes in midterms? #

The midterm electorate isn’t a miniature version of the presidential one.

• Older. Voters over 50 make up a larger share of midterm voters, because they vote consistently in every election.
• More habitual. People with a record of voting in past midterms dominate. Young and newly registered voters drop off more.
• More engaged and partisan. People who follow politics closely vote in every election; less engaged voters, who include many independents, are more likely to sit a midterm out.

Which party benefits from low turnout has changed as coalitions have shifted. Low turnout once reliably helped Republicans, whose voters were older and more habitual. Now that college graduates, who vote at high rates, lean Democratic and many less frequent voters lean Republican, the effect depends on the state and the year.

How does lower turnout affect midterm polls? #

Predicting who will vote is harder in a midterm. Pollsters use likely-voter screens, questions about past voting, interest and intention, to filter out people who say they’ll vote but won’t. Registered-voter and likely-voter results can differ by several points, and which one you’re looking at matters. We explain the difference in registered versus likely voters.

Election Tracker labels every poll’s population on its card: likely voters, registered voters or adults, along with the pollster, sample size and field dates. That’s the quickest way to tell whether two polls of the same Senate or governor race disagree because of the voters they surveyed. Its House tab shows the generic congressional ballot’s 30-day average, the best single gauge of the national mood in a midterm.

What about turnout in 2026? #

The midterm is on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships on the ballot. Turnout will depend on how competitive the top races in each state are and how motivated each side feels. States with a close Senate or governor race at the top of the ballot usually see higher turnout than states without one.

If you’re the one trying not to skip it, Election Tracker has a countdown to election day and optional reminders at 30 days, a week, a day out and on election day, scheduled on your iPhone with no account. Our 2026 midterm election calendar covers registration and mail-ballot deadlines, and why Election Day is on a Tuesday explains the date itself.

Frequently asked questions #

Why do midterm elections have lower turnout? #

Because there’s no presidential race to attract occasional voters. Midterms get less media coverage and less campaign spending on turnout, so people who vote only when the presidency is on the line tend to stay home.

Has midterm turnout increased recently? #

Yes. The 2018 midterm had about 50% turnout, the highest for a midterm since 1914, and 2022 was about 45%, well above 2014’s 36%. Both were still well below the presidential elections around them.

Does low turnout favor one party? #

It used to favor Republicans, because older and more habitual voters leaned their way. As college-educated voters have moved toward Democrats and many less frequent voters toward Republicans, the relationship has become less predictable and depends on the race.

How do pollsters decide who is a likely voter? #

They use screening questions about past voting, interest in the election, and certainty of voting, sometimes combined with voter-file records of actual turnout. Each pollster’s screen is different, which is one reason polls of the same race can differ.

Does automatic voter registration raise turnout? #

It raises registration, and studies suggest a modest turnout effect, mostly among people who weren’t registered before. We cover the details in how automatic voter registration works.